Greater Sunrise Project: Catalysing Timor-Leste's economic future

Timor-Leste is on the brink of significant economic transformation through the development of the Greater Sunrise project. Located approximately 231 kilometres from Beaço, this strategic initiative aims to harness substantial natural gas and condensate resources to fuel the nation's growth and stability.

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Project overview

The Greater Sunrise gas field, encompassing the Sunrise and Troubadour fields, is one of the largest undeveloped gas reserves in the Asia-Pacific region. It holds an estimated 5.1 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas and 226 million barrels of condensate. This project, designed by international engineering firms such as JPKenny, HR Wallingford, and Amec Foster Wheeler, ensures adherence to top-tier engineering standards. Key milestones include a Final Investment Decision (FID) by 2021, the start of construction in 2021/22, and operational facilities by 2025/26 .

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Financial and operational framework

The financial framework for the Greater Sunrise project was solidified by late 2019, laying a clear path for robust upstream and downstream operations. The project aims to produce up to 900 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd) of feed gas, with an LNG output of 5 million tonnes per annum (mtpa). Ownership of the project is divided among TIMOR GAP (56.56%), Woodside Petroleum (33.44%), and Osaka Gas (10%). This consortium combines the strengths and expertise of each partner, ensuring effective project management and execution. Woodside Petroleum oversees the upstream segment, while TLNG Co. and TLNG Pipeline Co. manage the downstream operations .

Strategic significance

The Greater Sunrise project is critical for Timor-Leste's strategy to leverage its natural resources for sustainable development. The economic model predicts substantial cash flows, with an estimated revenue generation of up to USD 50 billion over the project's lifetime. This revenue will be vital for national development, with a significant share allocated to Timor-Leste based on the development route—70% if processed domestically and 80% if processed in Australia .

Economic and social impact

The Timor-Leste government and TIMOR GAP have outlined a comprehensive plan to ensure the benefits of the Greater Sunrise project extend beyond economic gains. The development of supporting services, such as the Suai Supply Base, will create numerous business opportunities in engineering, fabrication, equipment rental, and more, generating employment and promoting skill development within the local workforce. The Suai Supply Base, a strategic infrastructure project located in the southern coast of Timor-Leste, is designed to support offshore Oil and Gas activities by providing essential services such as logistics, storage, and transportation. It will serve as a critical hub for the Greater Sunrise project, facilitating the efficient movement of materials and personnel, thereby boosting the overall operational efficiency of the initiative.

Technological and environmental considerations

Technological innovation is at the heart of the Greater Sunrise project. The involvement of top-tier international engineering companies, including Woodside Petroleum, ensures the deployment of advanced technologies, improving operational efficiency and safety. Environmental considerations are also paramount, with strict adherence to international standards aimed at minimising the project's ecological footprint .

Future outlook

Looking ahead, the Greater Sunrise project is set to become a cornerstone of Timor-Leste's economic strategy. With the first gas expected in 2025/26, the project promises to provide a steady revenue stream, supporting the nation’s long-term development goals. The comprehensive approach, from upstream gas extraction to downstream LNG processing, exemplifies a model of integrated resource management .

Key points

• Pipeline Location Debate: Ongoing discussions focus on whether the pipeline and LNG plant should be located in Timor-Leste or offshore. Proponents argue that an onshore plant would significantly boost local economic development .
• Economic Assumptions: Financial models incorporate key variables such as projected gas prices, currently estimated to stabilise around $8-$10 per MMBtu, construction costs forecasted at $13 billion, and an average inflation rate of 2% .
• Tax and Revenue Sharing: Revenue-sharing agreements like the CMATS Treaty ensure a 50-50 split of upstream revenues between Timor-Leste and Australia. Timor-Leste's share is critical for its budgetary sustainability .
• Long-term Economic Impact: The project is expected to generate up to USD 50 billion over its lifespan, contributing significantly to Timor-Leste’s GDP and positioning it as a major player in the regional Energy market .
• Community Impact and Employment: Construction is expected to create over 10,000 direct and indirect jobs, with operational phases sustaining around 2,000 high-skilled positions. Local workforce development is crucial for maximising these benefits .
• Social and Cultural Considerations: The project could lead to the displacement of local communities. Strategies such as fair compensation, community engagement, and cultural preservation initiatives are essential to mitigate these impacts .
• Risk Management and Safety: Extensive risk management planning includes state-of-the-art safety measures for potential LNG spills. Compliance with international safety standards ensures operational integrity .
• Environmental Impact: The project includes stringent measures to limit environmental damage. Adherence to international environmental standards is expected to minimise the ecological footprint, with continuous monitoring and mitigation strategies in place .
• Capacity Building: Improving Timor-Leste's technical and administrative capacity is essential for managing the complex demands of the project. This includes targeted training programs and international partnerships .

Conclusion

In conclusion, the Greater Sunrise project is a transformative initiative set to drive economic growth, boost regional Energy security, and position Timor-Leste as a pivotal player in the Southeast Asian Oil and Gas industry. For professionals and stakeholders in the industry, this project represents a unique opportunity to be part of a landmark development that blends technical excellence with strategic foresight.